“This is the beginning of a negotiation.”

Those were the words spoken by Prime Minister Mark Carney in March at the conclusion of his first phone call with American President Donald Trump.

On April 2, Canada largely escaped further tariffs—except for steel, aluminum, Canadian-made automobiles, and, yes, softwood lumber—on what President Trump called “Liberation Day,” and what Ontario Premier Doug Ford more appropriately called, “Job Termination Day.”

That was the moment when Trump launched a global trade war by announcing reciprocal tariffs on pretty much every country at a base rate of at least 10 per cent.

In reality, what Trump announced was the largest tax increase on American consumers ever, because the tariffs he is demanding will simply be tacked on to the price of goods shipped to America.

The “kind” announcement by Trump of tariff freedom for goods which are free trade-compliant according to the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) does nothing for the Canadian softwood lumber industry because it is not part of CUSMA and has been subject to wistful tariffs and anti-dumping duties from the American Commerce Department for the past decade, being held on deposit since they are in dispute. These amount to billions of dollars.

Based on the previously announced tariff of 25 per cent duties on non-CUSMA compliant Canadian goods, plus the additional tariffs and anti-dumping duties being contemplated by the American Commerce Department going forward, the duty on Canadian softwood lumber could end up anywhere from 20 per cent to 50 per cent, as a new administrative review has been announced recently by the Commerce Department.

So when Prime Minister Carney indicates that there will be a massive renegotiation of the trade relationship between Canada and the U.S., the Canadian forest industry should respond with: “There had better be—and softwood lumber exported to the U.S. had better be included in that negotiation with the understanding that Canada should respond with a counter-tariff on American goods entering Canada, reciprocal to the tariffs put on Canadian softwood lumber, if negotiations prove unsuccessful.”

Frankly, that should have occurred 10 years ago when softwood lumber was not included in CUSMA.

What’s disheartening is that those who will pay for whatever negotiated tariffs are eventually tacked onto Canadian softwood lumber will be American homebuyers. The average cost of a home today in America is about $400,000 (U.S.) and the current tariffs and anti-dumping fees being contemplated by the American administration on Canadian softwood lumber will add at least $10,000 (U.S.) to the cost of a home—but likely a lot more.

But if there is a silver lining to the current situation, it’s that this is clearly the opening that the Canadian forest industry and its lobbying partner, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) in the United States, have been searching for to reach a negotiated settlement on the Canadian softwood lumber trade issue.

Lately, the U.S. Lumber Coalition, which has been calling for stiff tariffs and anti-dumping duties on Canadian softwood lumber for decades, has been running around with its hair on fire, with near weekly press releases praising Trump’s verbal attacks—and fundamentally, lies—about how the U.S. doesn’t need Canadian softwood lumber.

Here’s a question for members of the U.S. Lumber Coalition: if the situation in Canada is so great to disadvantage you in America, why aren’t you investing more in Canada to take advantage of this supposed bonanza that you purport Canadian softwood lumbers producers have with our stumpage regime? We almost always welcome any investment from our U.S. neighbors—and certainly would, in this case.

What’s clear is that the U.S. Lumber Coalition has just one goal, which is to reduce choice to builders like the members of the NAHB and increase the market share of the coalition members. Calling for stiff tariffs and anti-dumping duties are one way that they are trying to accomplish this.

Notwithstanding Trump’s false claim that Americans don’t need Canadian softwood lumber, it does, with roughly between 30 to 40 per cent of that market currently served by Canadian softwood lumber producers.

That will only change marginally, and force Canadian sawmills to become even more efficient with the newest technology more quickly, regardless of the amount of tariff and anti-dumping duties put on Canadian softwood lumber. The demand is simply too great, especially with such tragic recent events as the California fires, Hurricane Helene which caused massive devastation in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina, not to mention the countless tornados that annually devastate tornado alley from Texas to Virginia. Furthermore, the annual hurricane season is only three months away.

Unfortunately, there will likely be Canadian job losses and forest industry curtailments and closures in the short term while a new softwood lumber deal is negotiated. How much will likely depend on such factors as production efficiency, log transport costs, and distance to market. Undoubtedly, each company will be doing its own calculations and we will know soon enough who will survive and—who will not. But the Canadian government has promised a safety net for workers, and possibly businesses, with money collected from reciprocal tariffs, so that could blunt the blow.

But the bottom line is, let’s talk!