By Mark Smith, Partner, FEA

In last year’s FEA annual survey of the “Top 10” Canadian lumber producers, the heading was “Coronavirus delivers a year like no other.” Little did we realize what was coming in 2021, with record prices for lumber, not only in North America, but globally.

FEA reports a U.S. Indice that reflects historical changes in a basket of structural lumber grades— and we had to change the price scale three times on the graph during the year to adjust for the price rises seen! These peaked about July 2021, fell back to levels that were still above historical averages, but once again showed strong upward growth and in Q1 2022, prices are again approaching last year’s historical highs.

Total North American lumber shipments: up by 0.5 billion board feet

Total North American softwood lumber shipments were up by just under 0.5 billion board feet (to 60.17 billion board feet from 59.73 billion board feet) in 2021 as compared to 2020.

This total North American growth of 0.5 billion board feet was identical to the increase seen in last year’s article, which reflected changes from 2019 to 2020.

Almost all of the growth seen coming into the 2021 year was from Canada where shipments were up by 1.7 per cent, contributing almost 0.4 billion board feet of the combined Canada/U.S. increase.

On the trade front, after sharp declines in the first half of last year, exports picked back up in the third quarter. However, for the year as a whole they fell, as high North American prices hurt the region’s competitive position, while strong consumption limited lumber available for export.

Canadian Top 10: shipments up by one per cent from 2020 to 2021

The Canadian Top 10 lumber producers saw shipments grow by one per cent in 2021 to 13.945 billion board feet compared to 13.803 billion board feet in 2020. However, the Top 10’s share of total Canadian shipments remained essentially the same—60.8 per cent in 2020 versus 60.4 per cent in 2021, as total Canadian shipments increased by 1.7 per cent (from 22.717 billion board feet in 2020 to 23.106 billion board feet in 2021).

The growth in Canadian shipments would have been even greater but for a number of factors during the year, including labour shortages, inclement weather and supply chain issues e.g., railcar shortages.

The Top 10 Canadian lumber producers remained the same through the top six from 2020 to 2021. These top six include West Fraser, Canfor, Resolute FP, Tolko, J.D. Irving and EACOM who collectively accounted for 10.9 billion board feet (47.2 per cent of total Canadian lumber output in 2021) which was marginally lower that 2020 (at 11.0 billion board feet) and at a lower percentage of total Canadian lumber output (which approached 48.6 per cent in 2020).

Effectively, the top six lost about 1.4 per cent of market share in 2021. Dunkley Lumber increased its production by 3.9 per cent which was enough to move it into the #7 spot, above Weyerhaeuser. And RYAM lumber (acquired by GreenFirst) fell out of the Top 10, to be replaced by Arbec that saw tremendous growth of over 36 per cent (please note that this increase is an estimate only and has not been able to be substantiated).

West Fraser remains in top spot with its Canadian output up a slight 25 million board feet (0.8 per cent) across its 12 mills. Canfor stayed second with 2.50 billion board feet, representing a slight increase of 10 million board feet across its 11 Western Canadian mills. Resolute FP continued at #3, with output at its 15 mills dropping by 134 million board feet (-6.6 per cent) after a stellar 312 million board feet (18 per cent) increase from 2019 to 2020. Tolko, at #4, also saw its output decrease by 30 million board feet (-2.2 per cent) as did #5, J.D. Irving, with a drop of 19 million board feet (-1.8 per cent). Finally, EACOM at #6 saw a small increase of 6 million board feet (0.7 per cent).

Continent-wise, the four largest North American softwood lumber producers (West Fraser, Canfor, Weyerhaeuser and Interfor) have operations in both the U.S. and Canada. Collectively, they produced 17.65 billion board feet (29.3 per cent of total North American lumber output) at 97 sawmills in 2021, strengthening their collective market share from the 2020 year (28.4 per cent). These publicly traded companies were positioned in the top nine in Canada.

Research by Chari Gimenez, FEA Canada